Or... Maybe It Won't

The big news is, of course, that the President and Congress are fighting tooth-and-nail about this whole "troop withdrawal" thing. Congress, echoing what is fairly clearly the will of the people (according to most polls, anyway), wants them out at some point in the foreseeable future. The President, echoing... well his own sense of purpose and probably the sentiments of his staff, thinks that setting any sort of withdrawal date will send a message of defeat to the troops and, more importantly, to the enemy.

These are interesting points. I do not think that the President is way outside the bounds of reality on this, because his concerns--politically motivated or not--seem reasonable. That doesn't outweigh my personal belief that withdrawal should still occur, but I don't immediately dismiss the rationale (that it will aid our enemy)put forth by the administration. That is, I didn't until I really considered what effect it could have.

Here's my thought: if I'm a terrorist, or just someone who doesn't want the USA in my country, blowing up my friends and family, I might take up arms and fight them. If I hear that the USA has no plans on leaving anytime soon, my strategy (and this is just me, I don't actually have any "freedom fighter" friends, that I know of) would be the same as what the actual insurgents seem to be using: keep killing soldiers until it becomes to costly for the U.S.

As an insurgent, I'm probably not too concerned about how this costliness actually manifests itself; whether it's massive public outcry, a political turnover (like the 2006 elections), or actual budgetary concerns. I just want them to leave.

Now enter the "troop withdrawal date". Instead of hearing that the Americans are hear to help my country by shooting its people ad infinitum, I hear they will shoot for awhile longer, and then leave. Perhaps not soon--not until late 2008, for instance, which is almost 18 months away. But the key is the knowledge of a date when they will cease actively trying to kill me.

In my mind, this creates a different sort of response. Why should I risk my life on a daily basis when, at some stated date, the oppressors of my country will leave? Why not take a breath or two, and reevalute my goals regarding insurgency? It seems to me that, whatever their motives are for constantly trying to kill American troops (or blowing up parts of their own country), those motives become less urgent if the American presence has an expiration date.

Of course, perhaps the "signal of weakness", as characterized by the President, would encourage an escalation of violence (the theory being that if they're willing to leave in X months, maybe we can make them leave now if we hit harder). I do not know nearly enough about... well, anything involved in this sort of analysis, to make an educated guess.

But I think the opponents of troop-withdrawal (those who aren't simply parroting the party line and have a legitimate beef with the idea) have overlooked the possibility that it will have a calming effect. After all, Iraq needs to stand on its own someday, and the complete lack of any idea when that will be can only serve to frustrate the hell out of those fighting for it.