January 9, 2008

"This country isn't..."

UPDATE BEFORE READING: I wrote this yesterday morning, before the polls abandoned Obama and gave Hillary the win in New Hampshire. I can only conclude that I am wildly prescient when it comes to politics...
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One of the lamest ways to start a sentence, or an argument, is to declare that "America isn't ready for..." or "this country is..."

For example, "America isn't ready for a black president," or "The U.S. is a conservative nation at heart." Both of these statements are ludicrous and make the speaker sound like an idiot.

You don't know what America is or isn't. Even if you are John Zogby, or the Pew Research people. You may have an idea, based on trends or polls or statistics, but you don't know what the country will or won't do in any given situation.

Polls are weak. The only way you can really determine how people are going to vote is to ask each one of them, or at least enough that you can guarantee the outcome. If a town has 1,000 residents, then you need to find 501 that will vote for your guy, and THEN you can be sure. But if you poll 100 people and find that 75 usually vote G.O.P., what have you found out? That 75 people have a preference. Will they all go to the polls? Will they all actually vote that way? There is no way to know.

It just bugs me, and I know this is a poorly-constructed rant, but I am tired of seeing "Is America Ready for a Black President?" articles. When it comes to race, it's even harder to poll because people will lie. They will lie and say they are fine with a black president, or say that they are not sure when they are. The truth is, we don't know and the only true way to find out is to hold an election where a black man/woman is running.

For what it's worth, I am still Democrat-undecided this year. I dislike primaries and caucuses because they seem unfair. I am leaning towards Obama because he seems different. I am wary, though, of picking the liberal equivalent of GWB: a nice, light on experience contender that may be in over his head. We shall see.

I won't even start in on the Republican crop. Yikes.

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