Who's in the What Now?

I turned on the news this morning, and was pretty confused for about 45 seconds. The caption said "McCain picks Palin for VP spot" and the anchors were talking about abortion. The video was of some woman getting married, looped.

Sarah Palin? This seems like a pretty naked grab for "disgruntled Hillary supporters" but severely overestimates how badly women just want to vote for a woman. Women aren't morons, and if they're Democrats why would they vote for a super-conservative? Ovaries?

She may be a "rising star" in the GOP, but has the GOP forgotten who lives at its core? A big fat pile of extraordinarily backwards-thinking folk, who believe a woman's place is in the home. Are they on board with this? Maybe. I don't know any of them personally. But I bet it's enough to offset the tiny gains McCain will get from "Democrat" women.

McCain has managed to steal the news cycle from Obama, post-convention. That would be an excellent--if largely inconsequential--strategic move, but he had to use his VP pick do to it. The Republicans will now dominate the news for about a week, but in two weeks, what will we have? Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Palin. No "shocking picks" are left to derail the Democrat's train.

I don't know much about this Palin person, except that she's only been governor of one of our least populated states for 2 years. Before that she was mayor of a town that has fewer people than my graduating class at Virginia Tech.

Biden is going to eat her alive in the debates. Liberal women won't vote for her. Hardcore conservatives may be uneasy with a woman in such a prominent position. I would not be surprised if we look back in a few months and pinpoint this move as a clear manifestation of "winning the battle but losing the war."

Day of Mulling it Over Update: This could potentially be disastrous for McCain, and here's why: Palin is not battle-forged. She's never been anywhere close to a national campaign, her previous experiences in Alaska are nothing compared to having legions of reporters and bloggers watching you like a hawk and digging through your garbage.

I don't know her well enough to make a "prediction" but I will not be surprised if she ends up saying a lot of stupid things. Obama, McCain, and Biden have all done it but have learned from their mistakes. Palin is new and ready to insert foot into mouth. Unless she's a far, far better politician than I am guessing.